| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
805 |
0.225 |
$181.11 |
$-394.79 |
-68.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
450 |
0.365 |
$164.25 |
$-17.25 |
-9.5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
200 |
0.685 |
$137.00 |
$-5.00 |
-3.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.225 |
$112.50 |
$-52.50 |
-31.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
180 |
0.515 |
$92.47 |
$-1.08 |
-1.2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.685 |
$68.50 |
$6.50 |
+10.5% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.680 |
$68.00 |
$2.00 |
+3.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
220 |
0.215 |
$47.32 |
$-71.33 |
-60.1% |
| Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.685 |
$34.25 |
$-4.75 |
-12.2% |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.265 |
$26.50 |
$-8.50 |
-24.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House |
No |
18 |
0.875 |
$15.75 |
$1.89 |
+13.6% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.006 |
$6.50 |
$-1.50 |
-18.8% |
| FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.045 |
$2.70 |
$-5.70 |
-67.9% |
| Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2 |
0.510 |
$1.19 |
$-0.21 |
-15.0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
1 |
0.745 |
$0.74 |
$0.28 |
+61.9% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
1 |
0.455 |
$0.46 |
$0.03 |
+5.8% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? |
Yes |
1 |
0.085 |
$0.09 |
$-0.09 |
-52.7% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
1 |
0.065 |
$0.07 |
$-0.07 |
-50.0% |