PnL (30d)

−$829

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$97

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-76.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

8%

7W / 81L · 8 open

Win Return (30d)

11%

11W / 85L

Trades (30d)

96

across 34 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$29.60

avg win $60 · loss $36

Profit Factor

0.13

$119 won / $948 lost

Reward / Risk

1.63

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$58

peak → trough (30d)

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	1,900	0.165	$313.50	$-494.49	-61.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	200	0.785	$156.99	$139.00	+772.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	200	0.385	$77.00	$51.00	+196.2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	400	0.018	$7.40	$-15.20	-67.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	200	0.002	$0.30	$-3.30	-91.7%