PnL (30d)

+$375

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$53

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

88%

85W / 12L · 5 open

Win Return (30d)

88%

90W / 12L

Trades (30d)

102

across 47 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$8.53

avg win $13 · loss $15

Profit Factor

4.69

$477 won / $102 lost

Reward / Risk

0.89

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

41 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	827	0.978	$809.10	$48.53	+6.4%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	1,063	0.180	$191.30	$-25.08	-11.6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.852	$170.38	$134.97	+381.2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?	No	80	0.943	$75.23	$4.23	+6.0%
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?	No	57	0.875	$49.67	$19.74	+66.0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Yes	86	0.165	$14.19	$-44.31	-75.7%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.029	$5.70	$4.08	+251.6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.024	$4.70	$3.08	+189.9%
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	1,864	0.002	$2.80	$-39.56	-93.4%
Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	1,134	0.002	$1.70	$-24.08	-93.4%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.006	$1.30	$-0.32	-19.8%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.005	$1.10	$-0.52	-32.1%
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	2,164	0.001	$1.08	$-48.10	-97.8%
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	1,895	0.001	$0.95	$-42.11	-97.8%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.004	$0.90	$-0.72	-44.5%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.004	$0.90	$-0.72	-44.5%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.004	$0.90	$-0.72	-44.5%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.004	$0.70	$-0.92	-56.8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.004	$0.70	$-0.92	-56.8%
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	1,244	0.001	$0.62	$-27.65	-97.8%
Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	1,078	0.001	$0.54	$-23.96	-97.8%
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	1,020	0.001	$0.51	$-22.66	-97.8%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.003	$0.50	$-1.12	-69.2%
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	871	0.001	$0.44	$-19.37	-97.8%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	200	0.002	$0.30	$-1.32	-81.5%