PnL (30d)

−$439

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$57

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-47.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

11%

1W / 8L · 41 open

Win Return (30d)

40%

20W / 30L

Trades (30d)

50

across 13 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$73.10

avg win $22 · loss $92

Profit Factor

0.05

$22 won / $461 lost

Reward / Risk

0.24

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$40

peak → trough (30d)

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

13 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	2,856	0.135	$385.62	$-352.26	-47.7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	500	0.225	$112.49	$-49.49	-30.6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	618	0.145	$89.61	$-8.73	-8.9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	600	0.135	$80.70	$-1.53	-1.9%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	1,223	0.065	$79.52	$-161.39	-67.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	500	0.115	$57.50	$-7.50	-11.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	2,850	0.015	$44.17	$-25.42	-36.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	600	0.055	$33.00	$-21.00	-38.9%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	400	0.075	$30.00	$-20.00	-40.0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	995	0.026	$25.86	$5.96	+30.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	200	0.085	$17.00	$-1.00	-5.6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	285	0.036	$10.41	$-31.91	-75.4%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	32	0.053	$1.74	$-2.81	-61.8%