PnL (30d)

−$47

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$107

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-10.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

9%

2W / 20L · 14 open

Win Return (30d)

25%

9W / 27L

Trades (30d)

36

across 12 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$6.69

avg win $86 · loss $22

Profit Factor

0.65

$86 won / $133 lost

Reward / Risk

3.88

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

Open positions

8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	732	0.165	$120.85	$20.74	+20.7%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	331	0.285	$94.22	$-56.02	-37.3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	300	0.225	$67.48	$-28.49	-29.7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	413	0.130	$53.65	$5.92	+12.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	300	0.031	$9.30	$-53.70	-85.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	100	0.060	$6.00	$-2.00	-25.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	250	0.019	$4.88	$-19.62	-80.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	1,050	0.002	$1.57	$-111.12	-98.6%