| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
4,643 |
0.680 |
$3,157.57 |
$475.96 |
+17.7% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,432 |
0.852 |
$2,071.87 |
$935.34 |
+82.3% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? |
No |
2,091 |
0.815 |
$1,704.11 |
$221.99 |
+15.0% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
1,847 |
0.886 |
$1,637.03 |
$1,246.74 |
+319.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
7,346 |
0.150 |
$1,101.92 |
$-1,371.90 |
-55.5% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
7,096 |
0.145 |
$1,028.93 |
$-581.86 |
-36.1% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
3,309 |
0.278 |
$918.23 |
$728.94 |
+385.1% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? |
No |
1,011 |
0.825 |
$834.42 |
$516.22 |
+162.2% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
18,115 |
0.025 |
$460.11 |
$26.07 |
+6.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
2,652 |
0.165 |
$437.52 |
$-259.52 |
-37.2% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,945 |
0.146 |
$431.37 |
$368.93 |
+590.8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.184 |
$369.00 |
$355.58 |
+2650.9% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
560 |
0.643 |
$360.53 |
$-57.30 |
-13.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
9,576 |
0.034 |
$325.58 |
$-1,640.29 |
-83.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.290 |
$304.57 |
$-42.01 |
-12.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
539 |
0.555 |
$298.89 |
$-2.69 |
-0.9% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
4,994 |
0.052 |
$262.17 |
$143.98 |
+121.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
Yes |
2,251 |
0.105 |
$236.35 |
$-157.61 |
-40.0% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Yes |
12,351 |
0.017 |
$203.80 |
$-375.37 |
-64.8% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.050 |
$197.99 |
$104.59 |
+112.0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
6,049 |
0.030 |
$184.50 |
$164.82 |
+837.3% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
11,925 |
0.015 |
$172.92 |
$17.89 |
+11.5% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
46,681 |
0.004 |
$163.38 |
$-233.31 |
-58.8% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
No |
148 |
0.996 |
$147.26 |
$3.65 |
+2.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.675 |
$135.00 |
$-5.00 |
-3.6% |