PnL (30d)

−$546

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$69

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-10.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

68%

426W / 204L · 1 open

Win Return (30d)

68%

426W / 205L

Trades (30d)

631

across 49 markets · ~13 per market

EV / position

−$11.38

avg win $56 · loss $73

Profit Factor

0.70

$1,286 won / $1,833 lost

Reward / Risk

0.76

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

28 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	512	0.450	$230.44	$20.48	+9.8%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	619	0.160	$99.10	$30.46	+44.4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	1,639	0.038	$63.10	$-50.32	-44.4%
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	943	0.052	$49.04	$-31.58	-39.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	1,000	0.040	$39.50	$-21.50	-35.2%
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	174	0.225	$39.24	$-4.38	-10.1%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	268	0.115	$30.82	$-4.02	-11.5%
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	Yes	505	0.055	$27.80	$-22.24	-44.4%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,041	0.025	$25.50	$3.64	+16.7%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	300	0.075	$22.50	$-29.50	-56.7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	400	0.050	$19.80	$1.00	+5.3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	100	0.170	$17.00	$-18.00	-51.4%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	705	0.024	$16.56	$-44.68	-73.0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	300	0.052	$15.75	$1.65	+11.7%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	362	0.038	$13.94	$-10.60	-43.2%
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	100	0.065	$6.50	$-2.50	-27.8%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	329	0.019	$6.42	$-10.05	-61.0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	215	0.025	$5.46	$-3.46	-38.8%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	205	0.026	$5.32	$-18.23	-77.4%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?	Yes	52	0.083	$4.27	$0.96	+28.9%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?	Yes	32	0.076	$2.46	$-0.54	-17.9%
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.024	$2.35	$-6.65	-73.9%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Yes	13	0.100	$1.32	$0.53	+66.7%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	Yes	91	0.014	$1.27	$-5.99	-82.5%
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	146	0.004	$0.66	$-0.36	-35.7%