| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
522 |
0.895 |
$467.61 |
$38.36 |
+8.9% |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? |
No |
468 |
0.825 |
$386.08 |
$119.33 |
+44.7% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
479 |
0.780 |
$373.55 |
$25.62 |
+7.4% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? |
No |
290 |
0.900 |
$261.00 |
$43.50 |
+20.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
342 |
0.685 |
$234.21 |
$4.29 |
+1.9% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
216 |
0.585 |
$126.11 |
$6.58 |
+5.5% |
| EU debt downgrade before 2027? |
No |
166 |
0.735 |
$121.98 |
$8.11 |
+7.1% |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? |
Yes |
328 |
0.335 |
$110.04 |
$-19.09 |
-14.8% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? |
No |
35 |
0.962 |
$33.65 |
$12.65 |
+60.2% |
| Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
30 |
0.910 |
$27.21 |
$4.48 |
+19.7% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
Yes |
63 |
0.370 |
$23.31 |
$-3.78 |
-14.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
No |
56 |
0.223 |
$12.58 |
$9.19 |
+271.7% |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.800 |
$4.00 |
$0.60 |
+17.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
2 |
0.923 |
$1.41 |
$0.13 |
+9.9% |