| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
417 |
0.410 |
$171.06 |
$-64.70 |
-27.4% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
6,584 |
0.013 |
$82.30 |
$16.37 |
+24.8% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? |
Yes |
271 |
0.275 |
$74.39 |
$17.58 |
+31.0% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? |
Yes |
190 |
0.375 |
$71.39 |
$-24.17 |
-25.3% |
| Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
95 |
0.656 |
$62.36 |
$-21.67 |
-25.8% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
173 |
0.315 |
$54.51 |
$-68.45 |
-55.7% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? |
Yes |
458 |
0.095 |
$43.52 |
$-2.29 |
-5.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
322 |
0.115 |
$37.08 |
$-4.00 |
-9.7% |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
123 |
0.300 |
$36.90 |
$7.26 |
+24.5% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
78 |
0.365 |
$28.52 |
$2.48 |
+9.5% |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
4,386 |
0.005 |
$24.12 |
$-15.35 |
-38.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? |
No |
70 |
0.330 |
$23.12 |
$-24.92 |
-51.9% |
| Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? |
No |
23 |
0.975 |
$22.55 |
$4.05 |
+21.9% |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? |
Yes |
102 |
0.205 |
$20.85 |
$-42.80 |
-67.2% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
92 |
0.225 |
$20.67 |
$3.34 |
+19.3% |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
25 |
0.800 |
$19.74 |
$2.96 |
+17.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
83 |
0.225 |
$18.57 |
$0.71 |
+4.0% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
56 |
0.330 |
$18.54 |
$-22.82 |
-55.2% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
113 |
0.155 |
$17.54 |
$-0.48 |
-2.7% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
102 |
0.155 |
$15.87 |
$-9.17 |
-36.6% |
| Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
44 |
0.360 |
$15.77 |
$7.01 |
+80.0% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
Yes |
142 |
0.105 |
$14.92 |
$-0.71 |
-4.5% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
47 |
0.305 |
$14.26 |
$1.17 |
+8.9% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? |
No |
17 |
0.845 |
$14.24 |
$1.45 |
+11.3% |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? |
Yes |
103 |
0.135 |
$13.88 |
$-1.69 |
-10.9% |