PnL (30d)

−$152

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$8

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-16.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

47%

85W / 97L · 42 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

101W / 123L

Trades (30d)

224

across 53 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$3.81

avg win $11 · loss $16

Profit Factor

0.56

$192 won / $344 lost

Reward / Risk

0.68

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$4

peak → trough (30d)

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	70	0.825	$57.55	$23.87	+70.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	22	0.490	$10.58	$-6.70	-38.7%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?	No	7	0.920	$6.87	$0.30	+4.5%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?	No	4	0.956	$4.26	$0.29	+7.4%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 6, 2026?	No	2	0.915	$1.97	$0.08	+4.0%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?	No	2	0.925	$1.95	$0.12	+6.7%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	No	2	0.935	$1.48	$0.12	+8.7%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 4, 2026?	No	2	0.500	$0.76	$-0.62	-45.1%